Avoiding the Mediocrity Trap: The Case for Averaging Up in Promotions

Don’t Just Reward the Past — Promote for the Future

Promotions are often seen as rewards for past accomplishments, a natural progression on the corporate ladder. Yet, if organizations solely use past performance as the metric for advancement, they risk a dangerous drift toward mediocrity. “Averaging up” in promotions, rather than down, requires us to ask not just what the candidate has achieved but how their abilities align with the demands of a higher role.

The Pitfalls of Averaging Down

In many organizations, the default mode is to promote from within. Individuals who have shown loyalty, consistency, or long-standing success in their current roles are tapped for promotion. Unfortunately, this approach — promoting based on historical performance alone — can result in a system where people are routinely advanced to roles where they struggle to keep pace. Without a specific assessment of future potential and added value, the organization will end up promoting the wrong people. As a result, they may rely on outdated tactics that don’t serve the broader vision or fresh demands of the role. Instead of a forward-moving workforce, you get one that regresses to the mean, ultimately limiting the organization’s capacity to innovate…